thearctic's recent activity

  1. Comment on The West doesn’t understand how much Russia has changed in ~misc

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Russia's war-time economy has been producing three times more artillery than the entirety of the West combined, and year-over-year projections for increases in Western production fall way short of...

    Russia's war-time economy has been producing three times more artillery than the entirety of the West combined, and year-over-year projections for increases in Western production fall way short of closing the gap. It's not a serious argument that a surge in Western military aid can be a trump card, as far as I can see.

  2. Comment on The West doesn’t understand how much Russia has changed in ~misc

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    There was also a strategic mistake in that the perception of the strength of all-out sanctions from the US, even among Russians, was much greater than its actual strength (in a way that was not...

    There was also a strategic mistake in that the perception of the strength of all-out sanctions from the US, even among Russians, was much greater than its actual strength (in a way that was not difficult to foresee, IMO). We should have preserved that trump card to maintain some level of leverage over the risk-averse elements in Russia.

    5 votes

  3. Comment on Some observations about some of the conversations here in ~tildes

    thearctic
    Link
    I feel like these meta discussions need to have specifics, otherwise the post essentially becomes a Rorschach where people just vent based on a vague constellation of sentiment they have about the...

    I feel like these meta discussions need to have specifics, otherwise the post essentially becomes a Rorschach where people just vent based on a vague constellation of sentiment they have about the site or project what they've been feeling about where the internet/world is headed onto the community.

    Could you provide any specifics, even if relatively anonymizing?

    7 votes

  4. Comment on I'm curious how people on here stay politically engaged and aware while maintaining mental health? in ~life

    thearctic
    Link
    You probably don't need the constant trickle of news. If keeping up to date with the world is important to you, I'd recommend scanning a few news sites or this once a month.
    • Exemplary

    You probably don't need the constant trickle of news. If keeping up to date with the world is important to you, I'd recommend scanning a few news sites or this once a month.

    10 votes

  5. Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 6 in ~news

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    It's worrying the extent to which this is phrased like a physical threat.

    It's worrying the extent to which this is phrased like a physical threat.

    17 votes

  6. Comment on Whistleblower who accused Boeing supplier of ignoring defects dies in ~transport

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    There are 32 whistleblowers. I would say two deaths is quite unusual.

    There are 32 whistleblowers. I would say two deaths is quite unusual.

    12 votes

  7. Comment on Whistleblower who accused Boeing supplier of ignoring defects dies in ~transport

    thearctic
    Link
    At a certain point, it's worth asking what conclusion Occam's razor will take you to. I find it strange that people are accustomed to the idea of governments and crime syndicates putting hits on...

    At a certain point, it's worth asking what conclusion Occam's razor will take you to. I find it strange that people are accustomed to the idea of governments and crime syndicates putting hits on people, but are unwilling to consider a corporation, highly entangled with the military-industrial complex, doing the same.

    5 votes

  8. Comment on Humans might need to re-engineer the climate in ~enviro

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    All in all, I don't think even the potentially less chemically invasive strategies should be used except to mitigate runaway phenomena (ex. putting a bunch of mirrors in the Sahara could desertify...

    All in all, I don't think even the potentially less chemically invasive strategies should be used except to mitigate runaway phenomena (ex. putting a bunch of mirrors in the Sahara could desertify South America).

    3 votes

  9. Comment on Humans might need to re-engineer the climate in ~enviro

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    To add, the extent to which climate change will change things but still leave a good amount of global "aggregate utility" in some function (situations where a function has become less suitable in...

    To add, the extent to which climate change will change things but still leave a good amount of global "aggregate utility" in some function (situations where a function has become less suitable in one area, but more suitable in another), geoengineering, I would think, would introduce a lot of uncertainty into modeling that would make it much harder for policymakers, societies, and markets to adapt. It's my general, non-expert view that the most disastrous scenarios involving climate change will have to do with societies being unable to adapt and conflicts emerging from it—not necessarily a loss in global aggregate utility in a crucial area (that's not to say it would not be optimal to prevent the causes of climate change, it definitely would be since policymakers and societies aren't very adaptable and societies to some extent have a right to not change if they don't want to).

    That being said, I'm not completely opposed to mechanical solutions like mirrors to reflect the sun. This would seem especially useful if deployed to slow feedback loops like between ice melt and local heating.

    8 votes

  10. Comment on What do I do if I don't have any clothes? in ~life.style

    thearctic
    Link
    Some very simple advice for a male wardrobe: get a few nice, well-fitting pants (chinos, jeans). Maybe add a light, casual jacket. This alone will significantly level up your outfits and make...

    Some very simple advice for a male wardrobe: get a few nice, well-fitting pants (chinos, jeans). Maybe add a light, casual jacket. This alone will significantly level up your outfits and make things look more deliberate.

    2 votes

  11. Comment on Startups want to geoengineer a cooler planet. With few rules, experts see big risks. in ~enviro

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    The very conceptual foundation of it being engineering IMO already makes it an issue. Engineering a "better" climate, as opposed to implementing policies better for the health of the biosphere,...

    The very conceptual foundation of it being engineering IMO already makes it an issue. Engineering a "better" climate, as opposed to implementing policies better for the health of the biosphere, inherently implies hyperdynamic strategies focused solely around calibrating a narrow set of variables to a desired range. If it were anything else, it simply wouldn't be understood to be engineering. Polluting the air with SO2 just to reflect sunlight is extremely shortsighted, and there's a reason why, in Atlantic shipping, regulations were put in place against it.

    4 votes

  12. Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    I would wait to see what the endocrinologist recommends. I'd also recommend to more or less stick to their guidance and not to shop around too much for opinions.

    I would wait to see what the endocrinologist recommends. I'd also recommend to more or less stick to their guidance and not to shop around too much for opinions.

    13 votes

  13. Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I won't say exactly for privacy, but disclaimer: I am not an expert.

    I won't say exactly for privacy, but disclaimer: I am not an expert.

    3 votes

  14. Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link
    This is an area where the power of suggestion (ie. nocebo) has a dramatic effect. There's even an extent to which this can have downstream effects on your actual hormones (feelings of pride raise...

    This is an area where the power of suggestion (ie. nocebo) has a dramatic effect. There's even an extent to which this can have downstream effects on your actual hormones (feelings of pride raise testosterone, feelings of shame reduce it). Supplementing testosterone is potentially dangerous, and it doesn't seem like a direct measure of health and vitality. Your testosterone will begin to drop as you age and, unlike women and estrogen, it's a gradual and steady reduction over the course of your life after peak sexual maturity. The most important things you can focus on are getting quality and consistent sleep (!!), exercising regularly, eating whole foods, and avoiding putting yourself in a state of chronic mental stress.

    There is something going on at the population level with respect to male sexual health that's concerning (ex. worldwide drops in sperm count), but I don't think the answer at the individual level is to start taking T.

    26 votes

  15. Comment on Israeli missiles hit site in Iran in ~news

  16. Comment on Childhood loneliness linked to later psychosis in ~health.mental

    thearctic
    Link
    Can't comment on this research, but wanted to take the opportunity to say that the smallest bit of reaching out to an extremely lonely person will have a dramatic effect on their well-being. Small...

    Can't comment on this research, but wanted to take the opportunity to say that the smallest bit of reaching out to an extremely lonely person will have a dramatic effect on their well-being. Small things can really compound and fester in your mind during long periods of loneliness.

    11 votes

  17. Looking for non-political content

    ~life Ask (recommendations)
    Every now and then, I need, or at least am drawn to, something to turn my brain off for a bit. For some reason, this is often political content for me, which probably isn't healthy. Was wondering...

    Every now and then, I need, or at least am drawn to, something to turn my brain off for a bit. For some reason, this is often political content for me, which probably isn't healthy. Was wondering if you guys had any recommendations for content creators that upload fairly regularly about non-political, not-super-deep stuff.

    29 votes

  18. Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news

    thearctic
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I can't see the sense in this sentiment, when there are serious and plausible alternative hypotheses to contend with. Netanyahu has made explicitly clear his plans for a greater Israel, and he...

    You say they’re “not dumb” and that’s certainly true in some ways. Maybe it makes you wonder what they’re really up to? That’s fine, I wonder about that too. But better to leave that question open than to substitute your own reasoning to answer it.

    I can't see the sense in this sentiment, when there are serious and plausible alternative hypotheses to contend with. Netanyahu has made explicitly clear his plans for a greater Israel, and he gave a presentation with maps to the UN stating so.

    I don't see the October 7th attack from Hamas at all as irrational. Their goal was to sabotage the Abraham Accords by revitalizing the Islamic world's opposition against Israel, and they got exactly that.

    It also fails pretty badly for religious beliefs, which often look pretty silly from the outside, and yet, it’s a mistake to assume people don’t believe their own religion.

    Rationality should always be defined with respect to an endpoint. Actors are irrational if they fail to properly assess what gets them further or closer to their endpoint. Religious people can still be "rational" towards the end of achieving peace of mind, having a sense of community, and preserving culture and tradition (especially when those things are privileged over, say, the pursuit of scientific knowledge). It would be irrational toward profit-maximization, for instance, to burn a wad of cash.

    I believe that Israel believes in deterrence, that by hitting the enemy harder than they hit you, it will deter future attacks.

    I think this may potentially be the plurality view among the Israeli populace, but Netanyahu and everyone to the right of him have plans to create a greater Israel and I don't believe they're doing a tit-for-tat deterrence.

    8 votes

  19. Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    If Israel is the party that declared it a war to end Hamas and their actions are clearly undermining their war aims, it begs the question if it can really be called a war to end Hamas. The Israeli...

    If Israel is the party that declared it a war to end Hamas and their actions are clearly undermining their war aims, it begs the question if it can really be called a war to end Hamas. The Israeli regime isn't dumb, so I can't see that their sincere aim is to end Hamas (especially considering Netanyahu's historical support for Hamas to undermine the PA), but to push out the Palestinian population from the Gaza strip.

    The difference in what one understands to be their self-interest may confuse an analysis of whether that party is rational and, by extension, whether a motive can be inferred from their actions. But once their understanding of self-interest is understood, I don't think there's any issue there. Putin values autonomy and stemming liberalization of the Russian system over economic prosperity from trading with the West. His decision to invade Ukraine can be understood to be to create a moat against eastward liberalization over, say, a desire for conquest for economic gain.

    8 votes

  20. Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    The conflict between Israel and Hamas might be a subset of what is happening, but an explicit aim of Israel at this point seems to be terrorizing the civilian population through collective...

    The conflict between Israel and Hamas might be a subset of what is happening, but an explicit aim of Israel at this point seems to be terrorizing the civilian population through collective punishment. And that aim in some ways undermines their efforts in a standard war against Hamas alone significantly enough to question whether the situation can be described as being mostly a war. I'd favor "Israeli Invasion of the Gaza Strip" since it's a more general term that encompasses both aspects.

    10 votes