gary's recent activity
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Comment on Welcome to the millennial midlife crisis in ~life
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Comment on Welcome to the millennial midlife crisis in ~life
gary (edited )Link Parent56k is a very arbitrary number to be using? The median household income in 1980 was $21,020. Adjusted for inflation, this is $72,290 by the end of 2022. I used this site for calculating that. The...56k is a very arbitrary number to be using? The median household income in 1980 was $21,020. Adjusted for inflation, this is $72,290 by the end of 2022. I used this site for calculating that. The median household income in 2022 was $74,580. I would use 2023 numbers, but looks like the Census Bureau publishes their full report Q3 of the year after.
From the article above, the "Average Real Wealth by Generation Age" graph is a pretty good one that accounts for inflation. There's also this paragraph that helps explain discrepancies:
Even the wealth gap that exists today may mean less than it first appears to. Because more Millennials went to college and graduate school, they started their careers later, on average, than Boomers and Gen Xers did. On those grounds alone, one would expect a lag in wealth building. But more education typically means higher lifetime earnings—and thus stronger savings potential as the years go by. Many Millennials are just entering their peak earning years and have more earning power than the generations before them.
EDIT: I think I see where the 56k comes from. Either the graphs in The Atlantic or some other source, but the ones in The Atlantic are already normalized to 2024 dollars, so you can't normalize it again.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 20 in ~news
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Comment on School choice programs have been wildly successful under Ron DeSantis. Now Florida public schools might close. in ~life
gary Link ParentIn my city, charters enroll 15% of the students. It feels like a slippery slope fallacy to assume that if they became a monopoly things would "enshittify" (hate this term). Education is highly...In my city, charters enroll 15% of the students. It feels like a slippery slope fallacy to assume that if they became a monopoly things would "enshittify" (hate this term). Education is highly regulated and the government could start revoking licenses, assigning licenses to others, or just operating public schools again if they decided charters were operating like abusive monopolies.
As another angle, why do you not assume that public schools at 85% marketshare or whatever it is where you live are already acting like enshittified versions of what they could be?
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Comment on A word about RMS, GPL and the free software movement in ~tech
gary Link ParentThe point was whether the comparison of EV vs ICE CO2 pollution was comparable and I pointed out two factors that skewed the data. I don't care if heavy pickups ever become EV'd. The fact that...The point was whether the comparison of EV vs ICE CO2 pollution was comparable and I pointed out two factors that skewed the data. I don't care if heavy pickups ever become EV'd. The fact that they currently aren't EV'd is not my endorsement that they become EV'd. Nor am I predicting that they become EV'd.
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Comment on A word about RMS, GPL and the free software movement in ~tech
gary Link ParentGood link; that taught me a lot and gave me something I'll have to chew on for a while. It skipped over two factors I would have liked to see though. The first is that it's comparing average cars...Good link; that taught me a lot and gave me something I'll have to chew on for a while. It skipped over two factors I would have liked to see though.
The first is that it's comparing average cars on the road emissions to EV cars on the road emissions. For the latter, it calculates CO2 by taking average CO2/kwh and miles per kwh, but it doesn't include the fact that most EVs that exist right now are tackling the most efficient vehicle types first. If the average EV can get > 3 miles per kwh, that's awesome, but the Cybertruck gets < 2 miles per kwh. The Ford Lightning is 2.5 miles per kwh. These are estimates based on searches for "[cybertruck|ford lightning] real world range" and "[cybertruck|ford lightning] battery size". So it's a double whammy of inefficient car sizes are not calculated into current EV emissions, but they are calculated into ICE emissions. As more truck EVs become popular, this will become a fairer comparison.
The other factor is that, so far, people have been self selecting into EV usage based on their perception of range in their environment. My parents are not switching to an EV next year because they believe that the winters here will destroy their range. However, when I'm in the Bay Area, it feels like every other car is a Tesla.
These two things skew the results, but I'm not sure if it skews it enough to change the conclusion. At the end of the day, we're still going to make decisions based around our unique circumstances. I can't have an EV because I have nowhere to charge it. I'd have to drive to a charger and sit in my car for an hour every time I needed a charge.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 20 in ~news
gary LinkEgypt changed terms of Gaza ceasefire deal presented to Hamas, surprising negotiators, sources say (CNN) Posting this in case anyone is still under the impression that the Israelis backed out of...Egypt changed terms of Gaza ceasefire deal presented to Hamas, surprising negotiators, sources say (CNN)
Posting this in case anyone is still under the impression that the Israelis backed out of an agreed upon ceasefire deal at the last second. It's more complicated than that; there's a lot of fog of war.
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Comment on Housing market predictions in ~finance
gary Link ParentHappy to! I'll try to not assume anything here so if I explain something you already know, sorry. I made the assumption that your marginal tax rate (the rate that any more income gets taxed at) is...Happy to! I'll try to not assume anything here so if I explain something you already know, sorry.
I made the assumption that your marginal tax rate (the rate that any more income gets taxed at) is 17.85%, composed of both federal and NY state taxes. I used this calculator to arrive at that number, but depending on your deductions and exact numbers, 17.85% could be something higher.
Now imagine a scenario where you have an extra $1000. You could invest that $1000. Now in this scenario, if you made 8.52% profit (sorry, original 8.33% was a rougher estimate) on your investments, that's great! You'd have $1085.20. But the government gets their share too, so you get taxed at 17.85%. on the profits of $85.20. $85.20 - ($85.20 * 0.1785) is $69.99 (let's say $70).
So, if your investments return 8.52%, after taxes, it's like you made 7% profits only. If you have a loan that's charging you interest of 7%, paying $1000 towards it is like making 7%, but there's no taxes involved when you're paying off a loan, so that 7% is 7%. Versus investing money where you need to make 8.52% in order to effectively get 7%.
I hope that made sense, but honestly I'm kind of doubtful of my ability to explain that. I guess the gist of it is "If you took this money and invested it, how much would you actually gain after taxes? Versus the interest rate on the loans". Also, one benefit of paying off a high interest loan is that you know for sure you're getting a return on your investment. If you invest your money, there could be down years or a bad investment, so there's some "risk" to it that there isn't when you're paying off a loan.
I wouldn't pay off my car loan early even though I can, because the interest rate on that loan is so low at 1% that I could just make 5% sticking it in a high yield savings account and even after taxes, it still comes out greater than the 1% I'm losing to the loan's interest.
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Comment on Housing market predictions in ~finance
gary Link ParentMy apologies! I don't have a child myself so I don't have a good grasp of what those expenses are like. I also didn't factor in closing costs. My advice is still the same for tackling high...My apologies! I don't have a child myself so I don't have a good grasp of what those expenses are like. I also didn't factor in closing costs. My advice is still the same for tackling high interest rate debts first before you consider buying a home, for three reasons. And I don't mean to sound preachy with the below. I understand that your situation is way more nuanced than a stranger on the internet is going to know.
The first is that high interest rates just really suck. If your loan is 7%, it's like making 8.3% on investments, but risk-free. More if your tax brackets end up higher than the 12% I'm using for federal. Put another way, every extra dollar you put towards your 7% loans would be like making a free 8.3%.
The second is that your child is only a baby for so long. While they're young, they really don't mind the small space. Use that to your advantage.
The last reason is that larger homes are more likely to have more problems. You mentioned the floor warping in your condo, which isn't great. I guess you have to balance the likelihood of that getting worse and messing with your financials versus staying put and saving up for longer. I don't know.
I feel for your situation, I really do. I hope you find the right home at a great price. What you have going for you is that you and your partner both have great jobs that are pretty steady in employment. Over time your salaries will rise too, even if it feels stretched thin now.
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Comment on Housing market predictions in ~finance
gary LinkI read the whole thread and feel the numbers don't add up to the difficulty. A lot of that has to do with the student loans, I imagine. So I guess my advice is to just stay where you are and pay...I read the whole thread and feel the numbers don't add up to the difficulty. A lot of that has to do with the student loans, I imagine. So I guess my advice is to just stay where you are and pay off your student loans as fast as you can because the interest rates are typically very high on those. If the interest rates are > 7% you should definitely sink every last dollar into those immediately.
Also, what down payment would you make on your next home purchase? You sound like you have around $70k from the sale of your condo towards the new home and the numbers I'm running on a $300k home in NY are $2100/month. If you have more personal savings then the monthly payments come down even more. Or at $250k, it's $1600/month.
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Comment on Helicopter carrying Iran’s President has crashed, state media reports (gifted link) in ~news
gary (edited )Link Parent"Hard landing" and "crash" have both been used at this point. It depends on which news article you read. It's probably a translation quirk. Not only that, but nothing has been verified yet as..."Hard landing" and "crash" have both been used at this point. It depends on which news article you read. It's probably a translation quirk. Not only that, but nothing has been verified yet as they're still searching for the helicopter. Let's not nitpick every word in an unfolding situation being translated from one language to another.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 13 in ~news
gary Link ParentNothing in your original comment was clear about discussing numbers in the context of a greater than 35k denominator. If you want to compare to all deaths, reported and unreported, then you are...Nothing in your original comment was clear about discussing numbers in the context of a greater than 35k denominator. If you want to compare to all deaths, reported and unreported, then you are not comparing like for like which is the point of the change in the UN numbers being reported. In which case why are you even discussing these UN numbers? It shouldn't matter to you then if 9k women died (old numbers) or 4.5k women died (new numbers) since there's an unknown amount that adds up to neither of those.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 13 in ~news
gary Link ParentIn the new numbers, men are dying at 2x the rate women are. If you apply the 2x rate to the old numbers, you would see it couldn't be possible. Therefore, if you assume the new numbers are more...In the new numbers, men are dying at 2x the rate women are. If you apply the 2x rate to the old numbers, you would see it couldn't be possible. Therefore, if you assume the new numbers are more accurate, then it's likely women were over counted in the old numbers. Unless the distribution has changed a lot recently, which is why I'm saying we can't know.
Do the math.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of May 13 in ~news
gary Link ParentOr lower. Your "probably" is based on nothing. We just don't know. What we do know is that the UN has changed the proportion of casualties and in the new breakdown, more men have died than in the...There might very well be (and probably are) the same number or higher in each category as before.
Or lower. Your "probably" is based on nothing. We just don't know. What we do know is that the UN has changed the proportion of casualties and in the new breakdown, more men have died than in the old breakdown. But it could very well be that more women and children have died recently than in the beginning of the war, so it may end up the same like you're saying, but we just don't have enough information right now.
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Comment on Is Emacs or VIM worth learning in today's day and age? in ~comp
gary Link Parent@tauon answered better than I could. I agree with everything they said, and would like to add that adding in LSP stuff is way easier on helix (just install the language server; no config needed...@tauon answered better than I could. I agree with everything they said, and would like to add that adding in LSP stuff is way easier on helix (just install the language server; no config needed most of the time).
The biggest reason I use helix is the polish. It lacks in features, notably no plugin system yet, but what it does have works better than vim plugins I've used. Global file search, a picker window for those results, and also fuzzy finding files are components I rely on constantly at work. Telescope and fzf worked on vim but there was often a slight lag that would drive me crazy. I would mess with configuration and waste time without fixing the issue. It just works on helix without the lag.
The LSP stuff I mentioned earlier? Yeah I got it working in vim with a bunch of config. They make it "easier" now but the damn steps are so boilerplate that they might as well bake it in with an easy install option rather than have you copy paste config you're not really reading until something is broken and you have no idea why. They have batteries included "distros" of vim now and maybe they solve the above problems.
My helix config file minus empty newlines is 14 lines long, of which 5 of those lines is setting the section the setting applies to. I haven't touched it since the first week I started using helix; it just works.
Every release brings substantial improvements and I feel a lot of joy reading these changelogs 2 or so times a year. The features probably all exist in vim through a plugin, but the curation and polish aspect make me happier than hunting for something I'm not even aware exists.
Vim is great! I will always love vim and use vi/vim on a system that isn't mine. I'm just too busy these days to tinker with my config files and like things with sane defaults, fast, and good enough.
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Comment on Chinese police officers will soon be on patrol in Hungary in ~news
gary LinkIs this something actually worrisome or are the comments here knee jerk reactions? Why should we believe it's any more out of the norm than what Hungary does with Croatia and Austria as noted in...Is this something actually worrisome or are the comments here knee jerk reactions? Why should we believe it's any more out of the norm than what Hungary does with Croatia and Austria as noted in the article? Or China and Serbia?
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Comment on Is Emacs or VIM worth learning in today's day and age? in ~comp
gary LinkAs a competent but not expert vim/helix user, I'd say less the editors themselves and more their keybinds. The editors are powerful, but my enjoyment comes from flying around the editor and vim...As a competent but not expert vim/helix user, I'd say less the editors themselves and more their keybinds. The editors are powerful, but my enjoyment comes from flying around the editor and vim keybinds are practically universal at this point. Try it out! Force yourself to use it for a while and manipulate text with it beyond just inserting.
I mentioned helix because I like helix more these days. Their keybinds aren't supported in many editors though.
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Comment on Musi’s free music streaming app is a hit with thrifty teens. The app claims to tap content on YouTube, but some in the music industry question the legitimacy of that model. in ~music
gary Link ParentDid it take Musi to show us that people want both free and convenient options?Did it take Musi to show us that people want both free and convenient options?
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Comment on Hey GM: If you want to beat Apple, give people the buttons CarPlay can’t in ~transport
gary Link ParentEh, the UI for Mazda's non-touch CarPlay is serviceable, but I wouldn't go as far as to say it's incredible. It's fundamentally solid, but the UI was not designed for the Mazda-style rotary knob...Eh, the UI for Mazda's non-touch CarPlay is serviceable, but I wouldn't go as far as to say it's incredible. It's fundamentally solid, but the UI was not designed for the Mazda-style rotary knob and it shows. The latest version of CarPlay has a terrible colorscheme for showing which button element is selected. The default buttons that are selected in apps like Maps is not great either; there's not enough predictability and also navigating to the one you want can require way too many turns.
If you're using Maps and switch into Music, half a second later a banner will pop up showing you the directions that you have already just seen, and also putting your knob focus onto the button that returns you to Maps. Stealing focus is bad; stealing focus on a delay is bad; stealing focus to navigate you back to an app you just made a conscious decision to leave is mind mindbogglingly bad. You can tell no one at Apple actually dailies a car with a knob based UI.
Lastly, the Music app itself is frustrating. If you want to scroll your queue, it will only load X songs. Sometimes it loads X+Y songs, but then the OS remembers it's only supposed to show X songs, so it then removes the Y songs from the UI. Why..? And if you pick the last song in a queue, have fun going back to the queue and starting at the bottom of the list, because for some reason no one at Apple has figured out that selecting a song at the bottom of the queue means that you necessarily haven't seen the new songs populating your queue. Maintaining position in a list when the list changes based on your choice is stupid.
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Comment on Sony backed down from the PSN requirement to play Helldivers 2. How will this change how the community reacts to game changes? in ~games
That was very interesting, and I hope I'm not misreading the article. Should I have read that to mean that the picture for individuals is rosier than I would have thought?